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Glaciers are melting, sea levels are rising, heat waves and heavy rainfall are increasing: The consequences of climate change are visible and tangible worldwide, and the window of opportunity to act is shrinking. In order to significantly limit the global effects of climate change, the emission of greenhouse gases on earth must be drastically reduced. The agreement reached by the international community in Paris in 2015 sets the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, but preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Now, the Wuppertal Institute presented a study with possible cornerstones that can help to achieve the 1.5 degree target by 2035. The study shows that a climate-neutral energy system by 2035 is very ambitious, but fundamentally feasible - –provided that all possible strategies from today's point of view are bundled.What is needed above all is to bring forward and intensify the measures described in many studies as necessary to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050.
In order to be able to make an adequate contribution to achieving the 1.5 degree limit, Germany will have to switch to a climate-neutral energy system by about 2035. In the study "CO2-neutral by 2035: Key elements of a German contribution to meeting the 1.5°C limit", researchers at the Wuppertal Institute have investigated which transformation steps and speeds are necessary to achieve this goal. The study, which was prepared by the research team with financial support from GLS Bank for Fridays for Future Germany, was presented today in Berlin during a press conference. The result of the study: A climate-neutral energy system by 2035 is very ambitious, but fundamentally feasible, provided that all possible strategies from today's perspective are bundled.
The German government's Climate Protection Act, which was passed last year, envisages Germany becoming greenhouse gas neutral by 2050. However, this is not compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The German Advisory Council on the Environment (SRU) assumes that CO2 neutrality must be achieved in Germany by around 2035 if an appropriate contribution is to be made to the global 1.5 degree target. Greenhouse gas emissions above and beyond CO2 must also fall very quickly thereafter. The SRU bases this on the assumption that per capita emissions will be distributed equally worldwide and that Germany will not be allowed to claim a disproportionate share. But how can this goal be achieved in time? The study attempts to provide impetus for discussion.
Manfred Fischedick, Scientific Director of the Wuppertal Institute, warns: "In order to have a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, German emissions would have to decrease dramatically, especially in the next five years - and thus above all in the next legislative period".
"A fair contribution to compliance with the 1.5-degree limit can now only be made if the upcoming German government tackles the transformation of the energy system as a core issue and consistently aligns its policies with the goal of a climate-neutral energy system by 2035. Without rapid CO2 emission reductions and prioritisation of climate protection in all policy areas, this is unlikely to be achieved," emphasises Dr Sascha Samadi, co-author of the study and research fellow in the Future Energy and Industrial Systems Division at the Wuppertal Institute.
In order to keep to the 1.5 degree budget, CO2 reductions of at least minus 60 percent by 2025 and at least minus 85 percent by 2030 (in both cases compared to 1990) are required, assuming the same per capita emissions worldwide. This is because cumulative emissions are crucial to significantly reducing the risks and impacts of climate change. However, a uniform, linear reduction by 2035 is not sufficient for this (see graphic).
Focus on the energy, industry, transport and buildings sectors
In their study, the researchers of the Wuppertal Institute investigated, on the basis of existing energy scenarios and further considerations, how CO2 neutrality could already be implemented by 2035, especially in the sectors of energy management, industry, transport and buildings. In their view, this requires the following measures, among others:
In the Energy industry the German government's expansion targets for wind and solar energy would have to be at least 25 gigawatts per year - more than double the government's current targets.
In some energy-intensive Industry sectors about half of the industrial plants will reach the end of their intended service life in the next ten years.
"Even though there may still be uncertainties about the best long-term solution, building the infrastructure for a climate-neutral industry must start today. Otherwise, there may not be enough time for the conversion. Therefore, decisions have to be made now and implementation has to start very quickly," emphasises Dr Georg Kobiela, also co-author of the study and researcher in the Future Energy and Industrial Systems Division at the Wuppertal Institute.
The Traffic in Germany must be significantly reduced in order to achieve the goal of CO2 neutrality by 2035. Car and truck traffic is largely responsible for the high energy demand. Compared to rail, a car with a combustion engine requires 4.8 times more energy per kilometre and person, and a truck even 5.6 times more per tonne and kilometre than freight rail. Steps affecting transport are in particular:
At Buildings a massive and unprecedented increase in the energy refurbishment rate to a level of around 4 per cent per year is necessary - currently the rate is only around 1 per cent.
The scenarios outlined for achieving the targets by 2035 require the parallel implementation of a wide range of measures in all sectors. They each pose major challenges in their own right and require unprecedented political efforts. Businesses must also be ready and able to help shape the transformation process - without losing global competitiveness. "Above all, however, the broad consent of society is needed to keep within the 1.5-degree limit. To achieve this, the transformation path must be designed fairly and social aspects must be taken into account," emphasizes Prof. Manfred Fischedick.
Source: Press release of the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy gGmbH from 13.10.2020
Keywords:
Stock, CO2-neutral, DE-News, Renewable, Research, Climate emergency, Climate protection, Mobility, Sustainable management, New books and studies, Quarters, Resource efficiency, Settlements, City, Environmental policy, Housing, XXL settlements
Veröffentlicht: 23.10.2023
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CO2-neutral, DE-News, Renewable, Faktor X / ResScore, Movies, Movies < 4 Min, Business, Climate protection, Communities, Media, Sustainable management, New building area, News Blog Baden-Württemberg, Urban production
Since 1 May 2018, the amendments to the Hamburg Building Code (HBauO) have come into force. The resolution on this was passed in June 2017.
In the future, wood can be used for construction projects up to 22 metres high - about 6 to 7 storeys.
The changes in the new HBauO also have an effect in the area of accessibility. Previously, it was necessary to build all barrier-free flats in a building on the same floor. In the future, the flats can also be distributed over several floors.
The Hamburg Building Code exists here
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Procurement, DE-News, Wood construction, Climate protection, News Blog Hamburg, Quarters, Settlements, Environmental policy, Housing policy
After a significant decline in the previous year, greenhouse gas emissions in Germany are on the rise again. Thus, around 762 million tonnes of greenhouse gases were released in 2021 - a good 33 million tonnes or 4.5 percent more than in 2020. Overall, emissions in Germany have thus fallen by 38.7 percent since 1990. The increase in the last year is particularly noticeable in the energy sector: This shows an increase of 27 million tonnes CO2-equivalents, as increased demand for electricity, lower electricity generation from renewable energies and the higher gas price led to increased use of coal for electricity generation. Electricity generation from renewables fell by seven per cent, mainly due to poor wind conditions. In the transport and building sectors, emissions were above the annual ceilings set by the Federal Climate Protection Act. This is shown by the latest calculations of the Federal Environment Agency (UBA), which are based on the specifications of the Federal Climate Protection Act and the EU-Renewable Energy Directive (RED) were presented today.
Climate State Secretary Patrick GraichenThe increase in greenhouse gas emissions has unfortunately become apparent. The Federal Government will now quickly counteract this with an immediate climate protection programme. The key is a much faster pace in the expansion of renewable energies. We must manage to install three times as much capacity as before in order to increase the share of renewables in electricity generation to 80% by 2030. There must be no more of the kind of stalemate we have seen in recent years. The Russian war of aggression on Ukraine has also made it dramatically clear to us how closely security and energy supply are linked. We can no longer afford to ignore this. That is why we must now quickly remove every stumbling block on the path to more wind and solar power. The faster shift away from fossil energies must encompass all sectors - from industrial production and buildings to mobility and agriculture. It is crucial to maintain the social balance in the process."
UBA-President Dirk Messner: "Almost half of the 2020 reduction in greenhouse gas emissions has already been lost. Our figures clearly show that the federal government's targets must be addressed as quickly as possible. We need to build more solar and wind power plants quickly. We must convert our buildings to heat pumps and stop installing oil and gas heating systems as soon as possible. We can also achieve a lot with our houses by saving energy, especially by making them more energy-efficient. This will also help to reduce our energy dependence on Russia. Each and every one of us can do something here that also helps the climate: heat a little less, leave the car parked more often or, if it is necessary, drive more slowly."
Current emission data in detail
Since 1990, emissions in Germany have fallen by 38.7 percent. The target for 2030 is a reduction of 65 percent. In 2021, there were increases in emissions compared to the previous year in almost all sectors. The available data show that since 2010, the energy transition in particular has contributed to the reduction of emissions. All other significant sectors have more or less stagnated since 2010.
© BMWK / Federal Environment Agency
In the sector Energy industry are with around 27 m. tonnes - this corresponds to 12.4 per cent more than in 2020. With around 247 tonnes, the m. Tons CO2-equivalents, however, emissions were still a good 11 m. There is no annual emission quantity for 2021 in the Federal Climate Protection Act for the energy sector. Emissions from hard coal and lignite-fired power generation increased particularly significantly due to the increased use of coal. The use of lower-emission natural gas, on the other hand, decreased in the second half of the year due to the significant increase in gas prices. The main reason for the increased use of fossil energy sources for electricity generation is the 17.5 TWh Significantly reduced electricity generation from renewable energies, in particular the lower wind power generation, and a 13.5 TWh increased gross electricity consumption.
At Traffic in 2021, around 148 m. Tons CO2-equivalents are emitted. This means that greenhouse gas emissions from this sector are both 1.2 per cent above the 2020 value and around 3 m. tonnes above the annual emission quantity of 145 tonnes permitted in the Federal Climate Protection Act for 2021. m. Tons CO2-equivalents. One reason for this is road freight traffic, which has risen again on the motorways to a level slightly above that of 2019. The CAR-In contrast, the level of traffic is still lower than before the Corona pandemic (2019), which is reflected in fuel sales figures and data from counting stations on motorways and trunk roads.
In the sector Industry emissions rose by a good 9 % compared to the previous year. m. Tons CO2-equivalents increased (plus 5.5 per cent). With around 181 m. Tons CO2-equivalents, they were almost at the 2019 level again, but just below the annual emission quantity of 182 m. Tons CO2- equivalents. Catching-up economic effects in the wake of the Corona crisis and increased use of fossil fuels play an important role here. The most significant percentage increase was in the steel industry, where crude steel production rose by around 12 percent. In the manufacturing industry (energy-related share), emissions increased by around seven m. Tons CO2-equivalents respectively 6.4 per cent.
At Buildings In 2021, there was an emission reduction of just under 4 m. Tons CO2-equivalents (minus 3.3 per cent) to around 115 m. Tons CO2-equivalents. Despite this reduction in emissions, the building sector, as in the previous year, exceeds the permitted annual emission quantity according to the Federal Climate Protection Act, which is 113 m. Tons CO2-equivalents. The reduction in emissions is mainly due to a special effect of significantly reduced heating oil purchases. Heating oil stocks were already increased extensively in 2019 and 2020 due to the favourable prices and in anticipation of the Fuel Emissions Trading Act. Natural gas consumption, on the other hand, increased due to the weather.
In the sector Agriculture Greenhouse gas emissions decreased by a good 1.2 m. Tons CO2-equivalents (minus 2.0 per cent) to 61 m. Tons CO2-equivalents. The sector thus remains significantly below the annual emission level of 68 m. Tons CO2-equivalents. The decline in animal numbers continues. Cattle numbers fell by 2.3 percent, pig numbers by 9.2 percent. As a result, there was less manure, which is why the emissions associated with fertilisation also fell (-4.0 percent compared to 2020). However, the significant undercutting of the set annual emission quantity is mainly due to methodological improvements in the calculation of emissions.
The emissions of the Waste sector fell by around 4.3 per cent compared to the previous year to a good eight per cent. m. Tons CO2-equivalents. This means that the waste sector once again remains below the annual emission level of nine m. Tons CO2-equivalents. The trend is essentially determined by the decreasing emissions from landfilling as a result of the ban on landfilling organic waste.
© BMWK / Federal Environment Agency
Further procedure under the Federal Climate Protection Act
The emission data for the year 2021 will now be reviewed by the Expert Council on Climate Issues, as provided for in the law. The expert council submits an assessment of the data within one month. After that, according to the law, the respective responsible ministries have three months to submit an emergency programme containing proposals for measures to bring the building sector and transport sector onto the intended target path in the coming years. However, the federal government is already working on an emergency climate protection programme that is intended to meet these requirements as far as possible.
© BMWK / Federal Environment Agency
Dirk Messner: "In order to achieve the German government's goals by 2030, six percent of emissions must now be reduced per year. Since 2010, the average has not even been two percent. To achieve this, Germany now needs a joint energy effort. Together, we must put all our energy into making ourselves independent of Russian energy and protecting our climate.
Current data on renewable energies
As early as 2020, the project, which was launched as part of the EU-Renewable Energies Directive (Renewable Energy DirectiveRED), Germany's binding target of 18 percent of gross final energy consumption was exceeded with 19.3 %. In 2021, the gross final energy consumption from renewable energies in the electricity, heating and transport sectors rose according to the calculation specifications of the RED further slightly to 483 Billion kWh an. This corresponded to a share of 19.7 per cent of total gross final energy consumption.
The main reason was that more renewable energies were used for heating and cooling due to the cold winter. For this reason - and because heating oil sales, which are decisive for the calculation of the share, also declined due to high inventories and rising oil prices - the share of renewable heat increased significantly from 15.3 to 16.5 percent in 2021. The heating and cooling sector accounts for more than half of Germany's total gross final energy consumption.
Electricity generation from renewable energies declined by seven percent in 2021 due to a comparatively poor wind year. At the same time, the expansion of onshore wind energy plants stagnated in recent years. The renewable share of gross electricity consumption fell accordingly from 45.2 percent in 2020 to 41.1 percent. Electricity consumption represents about a quarter of Germany's total gross final energy consumption. For the European monitoring according to RED the real decline in renewable electricity generation is, however, mitigated by a normalisation rule for compensating for weather effects over several years.
In the transport sector, the share of renewable energies in total final energy consumption fell from 7.6 percent in the previous year to 6.8 percent in 2021. This decline can be explained by special carry-over arrangements from earlier years under the greenhouse gas reduction quota and a higher crediting of upstream emission reductions. Transport is responsible for a good quarter of total energy consumption.
These and many other up-to-date and quality-assured data have been published in the background paper "Renewable Energies in Germany - Data on Development in 2021" by the Working Group on Renewable Energies Statistics (AGEE-Stat), which appeared today. The first available data on the use of renewable energies in the electricity, heat and transport sectors are supplemented by calculations on the associated avoided emissions and economic effects.
Further information:
The accuracy of the data
The present emission data for the year 2021 represent the best possible calculation at present. They are associated with corresponding uncertainties, in particular due to the limited statistical calculation basis available at this time. The calculations are derived from a system of model calculations and trend updates of the detailed inventories of greenhouse gas emissions for 2020 published in January 2022.
The complete, official and detailed inventory data on greenhouse gas emissions in Germany for the year 2021 is published by the UBA in January 2023 with the transmission to the European Commission.
Links
Source: PM from BMWK and UBA 15.03.2022
Keywords:
DE-News, Renewable, Climate protection, Mobility, Quarters, Settlements, City, Environmental policy, Housing, Housing policy
