Ahead of the UN World Summit on Human Settlements Habitat III: WBGU report on the transformative power of cities
Published
In the run-up to the UN World Human Settlements Summit Habitat III, the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) points to the major challenges posed by increasing urbanisation. In its report "The Relocation of Humanity: The Transformative Power of Cities", the WBGU emphasises that a brief window of opportunity will open up in the coming decades of urbanisation "to set the course towards sustainability" - see Printed matter 18/9590. In this context, the Council recommends shortening the Habitat conference cycle from 20 to four years. The upcoming Habitat conference will take place from 17 to 20 October in Ecuador. The topic of "urbanisation and transformation" should also become a permanent item on the G20 agenda.
"The report is impressive in view of its wealth of arguments and diverse examples of urbanisation phenomena and the description of their effects. The Association of German Cities feels - not least due to its contributions to the success of the HABITAT III conference in Quito in October 2016 - in complete agreement with the report regarding the central role of cities in mastering the upcoming transformation challenges and utilising their opportunities. The challenges to urban transformation are clearly expressed: the call for a sustainable, globally coded urban development policy is a mandate to the global community and national policies to make cities capable of taking action and to urban societies to utilise this capacity for the benefit of the urban population."
Lord Mayor Dr Eva Lohse President of the Association of German Cities
In its report, the WBGU presents a transformation strategy for the sustainable and "people-oriented design" of urbanisation. Cities play a particularly key role in this, as "the relocation of humanity could become the most powerful process of social change in the 21st century".
The force of the current urbanisation dynamic and its effects are so great that cities, urban societies, governments and international organisations worldwide must face up to this trend. A "business as usual" approach would lead to an unsustainable global urban society if urbanisation policy is not shaped. Only if cities and urban societies become sufficiently capable of acting can they realise their potential for sustainable development: It is in the cities that it will be decided whether the Great Transformation towards sustainability will succeed. This book discusses the conditions for success.
The report identifies five transformative, interlinked fields of action:
Decarbonisation, energy and climate protection,
Mobility and transport,
the structural and spatial design of cities,
Adaptation to climate change and
Poverty reduction and socio-economic disparities.
With regard to climate protection, for example, fossil CO₂ emission sources must be replaced by 2070, writes the WBGU. There would also have to be a "move away from a large part of the current infrastructure patterns" in order to reduce the temperature increase to significantly less than two degrees Celsius.
Berlin: On 4 May 2018, BUND presented a shutdown plan for nuclear power plants (NPPs) and coal-fired power plants. This analysis shows that the decommissioning of the most climate-damaging coal-fired power plants by 2020 and a significant acceleration of the nuclear phase-out in Germany are possible without jeopardising security of supply. "The shutdown plan is a call to action for the political actors to finally take action," explains BUND Chair Hubert Weiger at the presentation of the shutdown plan in Berlin.
In the shutdown plan, BUND has drawn up a concrete performance balance and names power plants as well as annual figures for the shutdown. The focus is on the years 2020 and 2023. This period is considered to be a particular challenge for supply security, since on the one hand it is the legal date for the phase-out of nuclear power. On the other hand, a good half of the coal-fired power plants must be taken off the grid in order to achieve the German climate target for 2020.
The BUND shutdown plan shows that this is possible and that significantly more coal-fired power plants can be taken off the grid in the short term than has been discussed so far, and that this can also be combined with a significant acceleration of the nuclear phase-out. As a result, the power surplus in Germany is declining, but the supply remains guaranteed even in hours without sun and with little wind. "In the first quarter of 2018, Germany exported on average the electricity production of five large power plants. Against this background alone, it is surprising that the new federal government has not agreed on the short-term decommissioning of the most climate-damaging coal-fired power plants," says the BUND chairman. "We want to show with our analysis that much more is possible if the political will is there."
The BUND shutdown plan shows that security of supply can be ensured if politicians do not continue to wait, but actively promote the energy transition in parallel to the shutdowns. The calculations of the power balance are mainly based on values from, for example, the Federal Network Agency or the transmission system operators. Deviations and other assumptions are justified. "With our analysis, we want to provide an important impetus for a transparent debate within the framework of the amendment to the Atomic Energy Act and the coal phase-out commission that is being constituted," explains Weiger.
In a shutdown list for coal-fired power plants, BUND proposes the units that would have to be taken off the grid first in order to achieve the 2020 climate target. It concerns all larger coal-fired power plants that were connected to the grid before 1990, in order to reduce the coal capacity on the electricity market to 20 gigawatts. As a new measure to enable a socially acceptable coal phase-out and to safeguard security of supply in extreme situations, the environmental association proposes the introduction of an additional coal phase-out reserve of six to eight gigawatts.
"The Paris Climate Agreement requires the phase-out of coal before 2030. The federal government is responsible for achieving the climate targets, it must enshrine the phase-out in law and ensure a just structural change. To achieve the 2020 climate target, it must now launch an immediate programme. Waiting any longer is irresponsible," continued the BUND chair. Due to the inactivity of climate policy in recent years, the German "climate problem" has become increasingly acute. According to the latest emission forecasts, the German climate protection target for 2020 will be missed by ten percentage points.
At the same time as the coal phase-out, the nuclear power plants can also be taken off the grid more quickly than required by law. The seven nuclear power plants that are currently still connected to the grid represent a constant safety risk for the population and must be decommissioned as soon as possible. So far, however, the federal government does not want to use the amendment to the Atomic Energy Act to really accelerate the nuclear phase-out. "BUND demands an immediate nuclear phase-out. At the very least, the current revision of the Atomic Energy Act must be used to legally prohibit further transfers of electricity volumes," says Weiger. Without this transfer, the nuclear power plants would run for a total of ten years less and the production of 300 tonnes of highly radioactive nuclear waste would be avoided.
Getting out of nuclear power and coal and still securing the energy supply - this is possible if the energy transition is driven forward. "It is a matter of further expanding renewable energies with commitment and creating the energy-economic framework conditions for an energy turnaround that is essentially based on wind energy and photovoltaics," says Weiger. This means an expansion of flexible decentralised CHP power plants, a reduction in electricity consumption, optimised utilisation of the electricity grids and a significant increase in the possibilities for load reduction.
Net public electricity generation reached a record share of 59.7 per cent in 2023. The share of the load was 57.1 per cent. This is the result of an analysis presented today by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE. New records were set for wind and solar power in 2023. In contrast, generation from lignite (-27 per cent) and hard coal (-35 per cent) fell sharply. Photovoltaics stood out in the expansion of generation capacity: at around 14 gigawatts, the expansion was in double digits for the first time and significantly exceeded the German government's statutory climate protection target. Source of the data is the platform energy-charts.info
Photovoltaic systems generated approx. 59.9 TWh in 2023, of which 53.5 TWh was fed into the public grid and 6.4 TWh was used for self-consumption. At around 9 TWh, June 2023 was the month with the highest solar power generation ever. The maximum solar output of 40.1 GW was reached on 7 July at 13:15, which corresponded to a 68% share of electricity generation. In 2023, the expansion of photovoltaics significantly exceeded the German government's targets: instead of the planned 9 gigawatts, 13.2 gigawatts were installed by November; according to preliminary data, this will be more than 14 gigawatts by the end of 2023. This is a sharp increase compared to 2022 (7.44 GW). This means that PV expansion in Germany has reached double digits for the first time.
The Hydropower increased from 17.5 TWh in 2022 to 20.5 TWh. The installed capacity of 4.94 GW has hardly changed compared to previous years.
The Biomass at 42.3 TWh was at the level of 2022 (42.2 TWh). The installed capacity is 9 GW.
In total, the renewable energies approx. 260 TWh in 2023, around 7.2 per cent more than in the previous year (242 TWh). The share of renewable energy generated in Germany in the load, i.e. the electricity mix that actually comes out of the socket, was 57.1 per cent compared to 50.2 per cent in 2022. In addition to net public electricity generation, total net electricity generation also includes in-house generation by industry and commerce, which is mainly generated using gas. The share of renewable energies in total net electricity generation, including the power plants of "businesses in the manufacturing, mining and quarrying sectors", is around 54.9 per cent (2022: 48.2 per cent).
The Load in the electricity grid totalled 457 TWh, around 26 TWh less than in 2022. Due to the high electricity prices and higher temperatures, electricity was probably saved significantly. The increase in self-consumption of solar power is also reducing the load. The load includes the electricity consumption and grid losses, but not the pumped-storage power consumption and the self-consumption of conventional power plants.
Sharp decline in coal-fired power
After German coal-fired power plants ramped up their production in 2022 - due to the outage of French nuclear power plants, but also due to the distortions in the electricity market caused by the war in Ukraine - their share fell significantly in 2023. As a result, generation in November 2023 was 27 per cent below the same month in the previous year due to the drop in coal-fired electricity exports, but also because of the good wind conditions.
Overall, production from Lignite for public electricity consumption fell by around 27 per cent, from 105.9 to 77.5 TWh. This is in addition to 3.7 TWh for industrial own consumption. Gross electricity generation fell to the level of 1963.
Net production from Hard coal-fired power plants for public electricity consumption was 36.1 TWh (-35 per cent) and 0.7 TWh for industrial own consumption. It was 21.4 TWh lower than in 2022. Gross electricity generation fell to the level of 1955. Natural gas for electricity generation remained slightly below the previous year's level at 45.8 TWh for public electricity supply and 29.6 for industrial own consumption. Due to the shutdown of the last three nuclear power plants in Emsland, Neckarwestheim and Isar on 15 April 2023, the Nuclear power only contributed 6.72 TWh to electricity generation, which corresponds to a share of 1.5 per cent.
Battery storage systems are developing rapidly
The expansion of fluctuating renewable energies also increases the need for grid expansion and storage capacity. Battery storage systems, which are installed on a decentralised basis to buffer the generation of wind and solar power, are particularly suitable. The private household segment is showing strong growth, as is the case with photovoltaic systems. Overall, installed battery capacity almost doubled from 4.4 GW in 2022 to 7.6 GW in 2023, while storage capacity rose from 6.5 GWh to 11.2 GWh. The capacity of German pumped storage plants is around 6 GW.
Declining exports and exchange electricity prices
After an export surplus of 27.1 TWh was achieved in electricity trading in 2022, an import surplus of 11.7 TWh was recorded in 2023. This was due in particular to the lower electricity generation costs in neighbouring European countries in the summer and the high costs of CO2-certificates. The majority of imports came from Denmark (10.7 TWh), Norway (4.6 TWh) and Sweden (2.9 TWh). Germany exported electricity to Austria (5.8 TWh) and Luxembourg (3.6 TWh).
In winter, electricity exchange prices rose again and CO2-certificates became more favourable. This already led to a balance in November and, in conjunction with high wind power generation, to export surpluses in December. In contrast to its neighbouring countries (Austria, Switzerland, France), Germany also has sufficient power plant capacity in winter to produce electricity for export.
The average volume-weighted day-ahead price Exchange electricity price fell sharply to €92.29/MWh or 9.23 cents/kWh (2022: €230.57/MWh). This puts it back at the 2021 level.
A detailed presentation of the data on electricity generation, imports/exports, prices, installed capacity, emissions and climate data can be found on the Energy Charts Server: www.energy-charts.info/downloads/Stromerzeugung_2023.pdf
This first version of the annual evaluation takes into account all electricity generation data from the Leipzig electricity exchange EEX and the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) up to and including 31 December 2023. The quarter-hourly values from the EEX were energetically corrected using the available monthly data from the Federal Statistical Office on electricity generation up to September 2023. For the remaining months, the correction factors were estimated on the basis of past monthly and annual data. The extrapolated values from October to December are subject to larger tolerances.
This is based on the data for the German Net electricity generation to the public electricity supply. It is the difference between gross electricity generation and the power plants' own consumption and is fed into the public grid. The electricity industry calculates with net figures, e.g. for electricity trading and grid utilisation, and only net electricity generation is traded on the electricity exchanges. It represents the electricity mix that actually comes out of the socket at home.
SRU member Prof Dr Messari-Becker speaks today in the Bundestag as an expert on the amendment to the German Building Code. The SRU welcomes the new "urban area" category. However, the level of noise protection in these areas must not be lowered. It is also problematic that the amendment is also intended to promote construction activity on the outskirts of settlements.
"We must not go backwards when it comes to land consumption. The amendment should therefore not make it easier to build in outlying areas," emphasises Prof. Messari-Becker. The German Advisory Council on the Environment (SRU) therefore recommends dispensing with accelerated procedures for development plans on the edge of existing settlements. The planned Section 13b should be cancelled without replacement.
The introduction of the new area category "urban area" in the Land Use Ordinance makes sense. The amendment provides for the immission guide values to be raised by 3 decibels. This corresponds to roughly a doubling of the sound power. Such an increase in the limit values should be rejected for health reasons. In addition, building densification should enhance urban open spaces as meeting and recreational areas and promote people's health. At the same time, urban green spaces must be strengthened in order to promote ecological qualities such as air pollution control, avoidance of so-called heat islands and biodiversity.
The written statement on the hearing of the Environment and Building Committee is available on the SRU website: www.umweltrat.de.
The German Advisory Council on the Environment (SRU) has been advising the German government on environmental policy issues for 45 years. The Council's composition of seven professors from various disciplines ensures a scientifically independent and comprehensive assessment, both from a scientific and technical perspective as well as from an economic, legal and health science perspective.
Source: PM of the German Advisory Council on the Environment, Berlin
The 2nd quarterly report published by the Renewable Energy Statistics Working Group on the development of renewable energies in Germany clearly shows that they are not growing as quickly as in the previous year. The expansion of photovoltaics fell from 614 megawatts in the first half of 2015 to just 514 megawatts in the current year. There was also a decline in wind energy from 2,858 megawatts in the previous year to 1,952 megawatts. The supply of heat from renewable energies increased by around 3 per cent year-on-year to 94.1 billion kilowatt hours.
To the quarterly report of the Renewable Energies Working Group
We use cookies to optimize our website and services.
Functional
Always active
Technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a particular service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that have not been requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access, which is solely for statistical purposes.Technical storage or access used solely for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary consent from your Internet service provider, or additional records from third parties, information stored or accessed for this purpose cannot generally be used alone to identify you.
Marketing
Technical storage or access is necessary to create user profiles, to send advertising or to track the user on a website or across multiple websites for similar marketing purposes.