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In the context of the Green Deal, the EU's tightened targets on the path to climate neutrality envisage a reduction in CO2 emissions of 55% by 2030 and 100% by 2050. Against the background of these tightened parameters, the question arises as to the impact on the energy transition in Germany. Based on its energy system model REMod, Fraunhofer ISE has calculated the consequences of the new EU targets for the expansion of renewable energies in Germany and now presents the results in a short study.

In February 2020, Fraunhofer ISE presented the study "Pathways to a Climate-Neutral Energy System - The Energy Transition in the Context of Societal Behaviour", which investigated the influence of societal behaviour on possible transformation paths of the German energy system towards an almost complete reduction of energy-related CO₂-emissions in the year 2050. The calculations carried out with the REMod energy system model were based on the targets set by the German government at the time of preparation, i.e. a reduction in German CO₂-emissions by 55% in 2030 and 95% in 2050 compared to 1990.

In response to the tightening of the European targets from 40% to 55% by 2030, which has now been implemented as part of the European Green Deal, the Institute has recalculated. The transformation paths for Germany considered in the February study were revised with a view to reducing Germany's CO₂-emissions of 65% in 2030 and complete climate neutrality of the energy system in 2050. The scientists from Freiburg recalculated all scenarios of their study from February (reference, insistence on conventional technologies, unacceptance of large infrastructure measures, sufficiency). As an additional aspect, they added an investigation of the sensitivity for import prices of green hydrogen and synthetic fuels. The short study mainly considers the reference scenario in order to be able to go into more detail on the changes caused by the target tightening. However, the study also identifies corridors for the expansion of a variety of technologies that can be derived from different scenarios. In the case of photovoltaics and wind, annual additions of 10-14 GW and 9 GW respectively are required by 2030 in order to achieve sufficient CO₂-free electricity for Germany.

"The update of our energy end-use study shows that achieving the climate protection targets, even with a greater reduction in greenhouse gas emissions than previously assumed, is feasible from a technical and systemic point of view, albeit with greater efforts," says Dr Christoph Kost, head of the Energy Systems and Energy Economics Group and author of the short study. "A target tightening of energy-related CO₂-emissions leads to a higher direct or indirect use of renewably generated electricity in the consumption sectors. This in turn requires a much greater expansion of wind and solar power generation facilities." Furthermore, the short study shows that the expansion of fluctuating renewable energies requires a strong expansion of system flexibility.

If we want to achieve a reduction in CO₂emissions by 65% by 2030, battery-electric vehicles must account for 30-35% of passenger transport in the mobility sector, for example. In a climate-neutral energy system by 2050, conventional internal combustion engines will be virtually eliminated from passenger car transport as well as from freight transport.

"Heat pumps - used in households or to supply district heating networks - must become a key technology for heat supply with immediate effect," says Institute Director Prof. Dr. Hans-Martin Henning, summarising the results for the building sector. With a view to the CO₂-avoidance costs, he adds: "The tightening of the target used here leads to an increase in CO₂-avoidance costs. However, these depend to a large extent on the development of final energy demand."

More detailed explanations of the central statements of the newly calculated transformation paths of the energy transition in Germany can be found on the website of Fraunhofer ISE: "Pathways to a climate-neutral energy system 2050 - The energy transition in the context of societal behaviours - Update under a target of 65% CO₂-reduction in 2030 and 100% in 2050.".

Link to the study "Pathways to a climate-neutral energy system - The energy transition in the context of societal behaviour", February 2020, update December 2020:

www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/veroeffentlichungen/studien/wege-zu-einem-klimaneutralen-energiesystem.html

Keywords:
DE-News, Renewable, Climate protection, New books and studies, PV, Environmental policy