Video (2018) Lecture by Prof. Austmann on the great transformation.
Published
1 h 00 min, 11/2018
In his lecture, Prof. Dr. Henning Austmann addressed the need for cultural change, even beyond the culture of living and building. Technology and politics have hardly been able to achieve any significant progress - let alone the necessary success - in recent years. A rethink and a cultural change are therefore needed so that climate change does not destroy existence on earth.
The lecture recording was made in the context of the symposium "Herbstforum Altbau" in Stuttgart on 21.11.2018.
Contractor: Joachim Eble Architecture, Rolf Messerschmidt, Tübingen
EGS-Plan engineering company for energy, building and solar technology mbH
IER Institute for Energy Economics and Rational Use of Energy, University of Stuttgart
Results: When analysing the total annual costs, the running costs and revenues in the utilisation phase are taken into account in addition to the capital-related investment costs. The result of this full cost calculation is a relatively homogeneous cost level for all building energy standards examined. Due to the subsidies for the better standards, lower energy costs and the use of subsidies, the cost level remains relatively constant among the building energy standards. Thus, higher building energy standards up to the "KfW 40 Plus Standard" are already economically attractive today.
The influence of building energy standards can be classified as subordinate when considering total consumer spending.
Berlin: On 4 May 2018, BUND presented a shutdown plan for nuclear power plants (NPPs) and coal-fired power plants. This analysis shows that the decommissioning of the most climate-damaging coal-fired power plants by 2020 and a significant acceleration of the nuclear phase-out in Germany are possible without jeopardising security of supply. "The shutdown plan is a call to action for the political actors to finally take action," explains BUND Chair Hubert Weiger at the presentation of the shutdown plan in Berlin.
In the shutdown plan, BUND has drawn up a concrete performance balance and names power plants as well as annual figures for the shutdown. The focus is on the years 2020 and 2023. This period is considered to be a particular challenge for supply security, since on the one hand it is the legal date for the phase-out of nuclear power. On the other hand, a good half of the coal-fired power plants must be taken off the grid in order to achieve the German climate target for 2020.
The BUND shutdown plan shows that this is possible and that significantly more coal-fired power plants can be taken off the grid in the short term than has been discussed so far, and that this can also be combined with a significant acceleration of the nuclear phase-out. As a result, the power surplus in Germany is declining, but the supply remains guaranteed even in hours without sun and with little wind. "In the first quarter of 2018, Germany exported on average the electricity production of five large power plants. Against this background alone, it is surprising that the new federal government has not agreed on the short-term decommissioning of the most climate-damaging coal-fired power plants," says the BUND chairman. "We want to show with our analysis that much more is possible if the political will is there."
The BUND shutdown plan shows that security of supply can be ensured if politicians do not continue to wait, but actively promote the energy transition in parallel to the shutdowns. The calculations of the power balance are mainly based on values from, for example, the Federal Network Agency or the transmission system operators. Deviations and other assumptions are justified. "With our analysis, we want to provide an important impetus for a transparent debate within the framework of the amendment to the Atomic Energy Act and the coal phase-out commission that is being constituted," explains Weiger.
In a shutdown list for coal-fired power plants, BUND proposes the units that would have to be taken off the grid first in order to achieve the 2020 climate target. It concerns all larger coal-fired power plants that were connected to the grid before 1990, in order to reduce the coal capacity on the electricity market to 20 gigawatts. As a new measure to enable a socially acceptable coal phase-out and to safeguard security of supply in extreme situations, the environmental association proposes the introduction of an additional coal phase-out reserve of six to eight gigawatts.
"The Paris Climate Agreement requires the phase-out of coal before 2030. The federal government is responsible for achieving the climate targets, it must enshrine the phase-out in law and ensure a just structural change. To achieve the 2020 climate target, it must now launch an immediate programme. Waiting any longer is irresponsible," continued the BUND chair. Due to the inactivity of climate policy in recent years, the German "climate problem" has become increasingly acute. According to the latest emission forecasts, the German climate protection target for 2020 will be missed by ten percentage points.
At the same time as the coal phase-out, the nuclear power plants can also be taken off the grid more quickly than required by law. The seven nuclear power plants that are currently still connected to the grid represent a constant safety risk for the population and must be decommissioned as soon as possible. So far, however, the federal government does not want to use the amendment to the Atomic Energy Act to really accelerate the nuclear phase-out. "BUND demands an immediate nuclear phase-out. At the very least, the current revision of the Atomic Energy Act must be used to legally prohibit further transfers of electricity volumes," says Weiger. Without this transfer, the nuclear power plants would run for a total of ten years less and the production of 300 tonnes of highly radioactive nuclear waste would be avoided.
Getting out of nuclear power and coal and still securing the energy supply - this is possible if the energy transition is driven forward. "It is a matter of further expanding renewable energies with commitment and creating the energy-economic framework conditions for an energy turnaround that is essentially based on wind energy and photovoltaics," says Weiger. This means an expansion of flexible decentralised CHP power plants, a reduction in electricity consumption, optimised utilisation of the electricity grids and a significant increase in the possibilities for load reduction.
Researchers at DIW Berlin have developed the "Ampel-Monitor Energiewende" - monitor the extent to which the government's energy policy agenda is being implemented - immense efforts are needed to close the gap between the announced targets and the current status quo
If the German government wants to achieve its energy policy goals, it must step up the pace. There are particularly large gaps between the current development and the targets for green hydrogen, electromobility and renewable heat, as the "Ampel-Monitor Energiewende" of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) shows. DIW researchers developed the monitor to track the progress of the energy transition towards climate neutrality using 15 indicators. The monitor, which is based on open data, accompanies progress on the government's goals with a focus on the period up to 2030. Selected results are now available on the DIW Berlin website (https://www.diw.de/ampel-monitor) are provided in the form of interactive graphics and short analyses and are updated regularly. All indicators and the underlying data can also be found open source on the Open Energy Tracker platform (https://openenergytracker.org).
"Our traffic light monitor makes it clear: the current pace of the energy transition is far too slow to achieve the 2030 targets," says DIW energy economist Wolf-Peter Schill, co-initiator of the monitor, which is presented in a study today. "If the government does not want to fall behind its target path, it must implement concrete and far-reaching steps promptly."
The pace of photovoltaic expansion must be tripled
The monitor shows: If the government wants to achieve its photovoltaic targets by 2030, it will have to triple the pace of expansion compared to the trend of the past twelve months, and even quadruple it for onshore wind power. At the current rate, the targets would clearly be missed. This would also make it impossible to achieve the coalition's goal of increasing the share of renewable energies in electricity consumption from the current 42 percent to 80 percent in 2030.
There is also a large gap in renewable heat, for which a share of renewable energies of 50 percent is envisaged in 2030. For this to happen, the share must grow by almost four percentage points per year - although it has not even increased by three percentage points since 2012.
"The Federal Government's to-do list is still long. The energy policy goals that have been set are not self-fulfilling; development must gain momentum in all areas." Alexander Roth
E-car fleet still growing very slowly - charging infrastructure inadequate
If the coalition's goal of increasing the e-car fleet to 15 million vehicles by 2030 is to be achieved, an average of around 130,000 vehicles must be registered in Germany every month. In addition to the existing purchase premiums, the EU ban on combustion engines, which is currently being voted on, could certainly contribute to more electromobility," explains study author Adeline Guéret.
According to the Monitor's data, the charging infrastructure must increase even more if the target is not to be missed. Instead of the current 1200 charging points per month, 8,700 would have to go into operation - around seven times as many.
From practically zero to ten gigawatts in green hydrogen
Most needs to happen with green hydrogen, as the traffic light monitor shows: The electrolysis capacity of around ten gigawatts in 2030 targeted in the coalition agreement still seems a long way off, given an electrical capacity of around 60 megawatts at the end of last year.
"With its open and constantly updated energy data, our traffic light monitor makes an important contribution to an informed and fact-based energy policy debate," concludes study author Alexander Roth. "It shows that the German government still has a long to-do list. The goals set are not self-fulfilling; development must gain momentum in all areas."
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