Bloomberg New Energy Finance expects photovoltaic investments to reach USD 3.4 trillion by 2040
Published
The New Energy Outlook 2016 (NEO) from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) assumes significantly lower prices for coal and gas than the forecast from the previous year. However, BNEF now also expects greater cost reductions for solar and wind energy. According to NEO 2016, the levelised cost of energy (LCOE) of photovoltaic systems will fall by 60 % by 2040.
This would make photovoltaics and wind energy the most cost-effective way of generating electricity in many countries in the 2020s and in almost all parts of the world in the 2030s.
The study predicts investments of USD 3.4 trillion by 2040 for PV power plants, rooftop systems and other small-scale solar power systems.
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Immovielien versus state and market failure in land policy
On 18 June 2018, almost 50 members from all over Germany founded the association Netzwerk Immovielien e. V. at the ufaFabrik in Berlin-Tempelhof. Since 2017, actors from civil society, the public sector, business, welfare, and academia have been working closely together in the network to promote a stronger focus on the common good in real estate and neighborhood development. The common good-oriented view of urban development issues and the heterogeneous composition of the members are the special features of the Immovielien network: the diversity of attitudes, discourses and formats makes it credible within the professional world, effective in the cause and attractive for new and old members.
"The interest in exchanging ideas and working together was enormous right from the start," says Jörn Luft from the Bonn-based Montag Stiftung Urbane Räume, which currently holds the coordinating position for the network. "Immovielien-Macher*innen and their partners want to become even more involved in the public discussion in the future through their educational and networking work".
Immovielien - real estate by many for many - are real estate and neighbourhood projects that create lasting added value for society and the neighbourhood. They are created in a participatory and interdisciplinary development process, mostly driven by civil society. They are to be strengthened by the network's activities, which range from events and publications to information and networking formats to concrete cooperations for real estate and urban development oriented towards the common good.
In the new association, the Immovielien network can now continue to grow structurally and financially independently. "We are extremely pleased that we were able to launch the association with almost 50 founding members. The same number of members is already in the starting blocks and wants to fill out the membership application in the next few days," says Rolf Novy-Huy from the Hattingen-based trias Foundation, who will take over the honorary board of directors together with Benedikt Altrogge from GLS Gemeinschaftsbank eG in Bochum.
"Now we want to co-ordinate as fast as possible over our work emphasis and take up then with a new co-ordination place in Berlin speed , announce Benedikt Altrogge. Proposals for possible focal points of work were already collected at the founding event. In addition to public and networking events, educational and public relations work, as well as cooperation between and for community-oriented actors in urban development, should continue to play an important role.
The network also wants to continue to advocate for the fundamental improvement of framework conditions for real estate and urban development oriented towards the common good. In view of the tense situation in many municipalities, savings dictates in the wrong place and a lack of will to reform would be tantamount to a failure on the part of the state, said both Florian Schmidt, a city councillor for construction in Berlin Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, and Caren Lay, deputy parliamentary group leader and spokeswoman on construction policy for The Left Party in the German Bundestag.
The network had already started a critical monitoring of the federal political discussions before its foundation. The network wants to continue this in the future. It remains important not to play each other off, noted founding member Thomas Bestgen from UTB Projektmanagement GmbH in Berlin, referring to the successful Immovielien projects in Switzerland. Much more decisive than the arguments about the most suitable legal form is the visible result of the real estate development for the people in the neighbourhood. Jörn Luft, who will be managing the transition of the existing network into the association until the summer, announced that the Immovieliensammlung, which will be available on the network's website, is one example of what this can look like.
Board of Directors: Rolf Novy-Huy (Hattingen) and Benedikt Altrogge (Bochum)
Coordination Office Immovielien Network
At the brewhouse 2
12053 Berlin
On the occasion of the 30th anniversary of Eurosolar, filmmaker Carl-A. Fechner has created a three-minute film about Hermann Scheer, the founder of Eurosolar.
In an interview with PV Magazine, Xavier Daval, President of the French solar association Ser-Soler, said the EU desperately needs a major European photovoltaic manufacturer. A complete exodus of the domestic solar industry to China and the US, he said, would drive Europe into energy dependency for decades to come. "We are not talking about a small task here. We are talking about the challenge of this century. When module manufacturing moved to China, the Germans thought they would continue to sell manufacturing equipment to Chinese solar producers. But now they have to look at equipping factories in China with locally made production lines. In the long run, this was a wrong decision. What the Europeans have to do now is to correct this situation. In the automotive industry, there are big players in Europe, China and the US. The same must now happen in the European solar industry. If we don't, we will be dependent on products from other regional markets in the future. For a century we have been dependent on oil from outside Europe. We must not allow a continuation of this dependency also in renewable energies and their technologies," says Daval.
Researchers at DIW Berlin have developed the "Ampel-Monitor Energiewende" - monitor the extent to which the government's energy policy agenda is being implemented - immense efforts are needed to close the gap between the announced targets and the current status quo
If the German government wants to achieve its energy policy goals, it must step up the pace. There are particularly large gaps between the current development and the targets for green hydrogen, electromobility and renewable heat, as the "Ampel-Monitor Energiewende" of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) shows. DIW researchers developed the monitor to track the progress of the energy transition towards climate neutrality using 15 indicators. The monitor, which is based on open data, accompanies progress on the government's goals with a focus on the period up to 2030. Selected results are now available on the DIW Berlin website (https://www.diw.de/ampel-monitor) are provided in the form of interactive graphics and short analyses and are updated regularly. All indicators and the underlying data can also be found open source on the Open Energy Tracker platform (https://openenergytracker.org).
"Our traffic light monitor makes it clear: the current pace of the energy transition is far too slow to achieve the 2030 targets," says DIW energy economist Wolf-Peter Schill, co-initiator of the monitor, which is presented in a study today. "If the government does not want to fall behind its target path, it must implement concrete and far-reaching steps promptly."
The pace of photovoltaic expansion must be tripled
The monitor shows: If the government wants to achieve its photovoltaic targets by 2030, it will have to triple the pace of expansion compared to the trend of the past twelve months, and even quadruple it for onshore wind power. At the current rate, the targets would clearly be missed. This would also make it impossible to achieve the coalition's goal of increasing the share of renewable energies in electricity consumption from the current 42 percent to 80 percent in 2030.
There is also a large gap in renewable heat, for which a share of renewable energies of 50 percent is envisaged in 2030. For this to happen, the share must grow by almost four percentage points per year - although it has not even increased by three percentage points since 2012.
"The Federal Government's to-do list is still long. The energy policy goals that have been set are not self-fulfilling; development must gain momentum in all areas." Alexander Roth
E-car fleet still growing very slowly - charging infrastructure inadequate
If the coalition's goal of increasing the e-car fleet to 15 million vehicles by 2030 is to be achieved, an average of around 130,000 vehicles must be registered in Germany every month. In addition to the existing purchase premiums, the EU ban on combustion engines, which is currently being voted on, could certainly contribute to more electromobility," explains study author Adeline Guéret.
According to the Monitor's data, the charging infrastructure must increase even more if the target is not to be missed. Instead of the current 1200 charging points per month, 8,700 would have to go into operation - around seven times as many.
From practically zero to ten gigawatts in green hydrogen
Most needs to happen with green hydrogen, as the traffic light monitor shows: The electrolysis capacity of around ten gigawatts in 2030 targeted in the coalition agreement still seems a long way off, given an electrical capacity of around 60 megawatts at the end of last year.
"With its open and constantly updated energy data, our traffic light monitor makes an important contribution to an informed and fact-based energy policy debate," concludes study author Alexander Roth. "It shows that the German government still has a long to-do list. The goals set are not self-fulfilling; development must gain momentum in all areas."
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