Electromobility: Raw materials for the transport revolution
Published
Even if the share of electric vehicles on German roads increases significantly by 2050, the demand for raw materials for electromobility can be met. Global deposits of lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite and platinum significantly exceed the forecast demand. These are the findings of a recent analysis by the Öko-Institut on behalf of Agora Verkehrswende.
Good news for the PV industry: The solar cap will be abolished and solar expansion will be further promoted. The photovoltaic potential in Germany is enormous - especially when it comes to using roof space on new buildings. The new LichtBlick SolarCheck now shows in detail how well the 14 largest German cities are currently exploiting this potential. Enormous differences are revealed: While Nuremberg (49.1%) and Hanover (46.8%) exploit almost half of their potential, Munich and Düsseldorf do not even reach the 10 percent hurdle. The absolute taillight: the Hanseatic city of Hamburg with only 7.2 percent - one more reason for the solar obligation for new buildings planned by the mayor's office.
To calculate the solar potential of the individual cities, the newly built roof areas were put in relation to the newly installed photovoltaic systems in the respective cities in 2018 (most recent figures). The result: the PV potential on roofs is barely exploited in most metropolitan regions in Germany. Yet every new roof without a solar installation is a wasted opportunity for climate protection and a consumer-oriented power supply. The vast majority of people in Germany want solar power from their roofs*.1
In view of the sobering results of the SolarCheck, Ralph Kampwirth, Head of Corporate Communications at LichtBlick, said: "We must finally bring the energy turnaround to the big cities - and the best way to do that is with solar power from the roof. Discussions about distance regulations for wind power or the use of agricultural land for PV plants show that the responsibility should not only lie with the rural population."
Converted to German households (average consumption 3,000 kWh), the possibilities of the individual cities become apparent: If Munich had fully exploited the potential of the new building roof areas, you could have supplied more than 10,000 households with solar power with the new solar areas built in 2018 alone, Hamburg around 11,500 households, in Berlin it would be 16,200 households." Especially in the megacities, only a small fraction of this is developed, as the SolarCheck shows.
About the research method: The market research company Statista determined the number of newly constructed residential and commercial buildings in 2018 for the 14 German cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants on the basis of data from the State Offices for Statistics and calculated the respective roof areas using scientifically based conversion factors.
In the context of the Green Deal, the EU's tightened targets on the path to climate neutrality envisage a reduction in CO2 emissions of 55% by 2030 and 100% by 2050. Against the background of these tightened parameters, the question arises as to the impact on the energy transition in Germany. Based on its energy system model REMod, Fraunhofer ISE has calculated the consequences of the new EU targets for the expansion of renewable energies in Germany and now presents the results in a short study.
In February 2020, Fraunhofer ISE presented the study "Pathways to a Climate-Neutral Energy System - The Energy Transition in the Context of Societal Behaviour", which investigated the influence of societal behaviour on possible transformation paths of the German energy system towards an almost complete reduction of energy-related CO2-emissions in the year 2050. The calculations carried out with the REMod energy system model were based on the targets set by the German government at the time of preparation, i.e. a reduction in German CO2-emissions by 55% in 2030 and 95% in 2050 compared to 1990.
In response to the tightening of the European targets from 40% to 55% by 2030, which has now been implemented as part of the European Green Deal, the Institute has recalculated. The transformation paths for Germany considered in the February study were revised with a view to reducing Germany's CO2-emissions of 65% in 2030 and complete climate neutrality of the energy system in 2050. The scientists from Freiburg recalculated all scenarios of their study from February (reference, insistence on conventional technologies, unacceptance of large infrastructure measures, sufficiency). As an additional aspect, they added an investigation of the sensitivity for import prices of green hydrogen and synthetic fuels. The short study mainly considers the reference scenario in order to be able to go into more detail on the changes caused by the target tightening. However, the study also identifies corridors for the expansion of a variety of technologies that can be derived from different scenarios. In the case of photovoltaics and wind, annual additions of 10-14 GW and 9 GW respectively are required by 2030 in order to achieve sufficient CO2-free electricity for Germany.
"The update of our energy end-use study shows that achieving the climate protection targets, even with a greater reduction in greenhouse gas emissions than previously assumed, is feasible from a technical and systemic point of view, albeit with greater efforts," says Dr Christoph Kost, head of the Energy Systems and Energy Economics Group and author of the short study. "A target tightening of energy-related CO2-emissions leads to a higher direct or indirect use of renewably generated electricity in the consumption sectors. This in turn requires a much greater expansion of wind and solar power generation facilities." Furthermore, the short study shows that the expansion of fluctuating renewable energies requires a strong expansion of system flexibility.
If we want to achieve a reduction in CO2emissions by 65% by 2030, battery-electric vehicles must account for 30-35% of passenger transport in the mobility sector, for example. In a climate-neutral energy system by 2050, conventional internal combustion engines will be virtually eliminated from passenger car transport as well as from freight transport.
"Heat pumps - used in households or to supply district heating networks - must become a key technology for heat supply with immediate effect," says Institute Director Prof. Dr. Hans-Martin Henning, summarising the results for the building sector. With a view to the CO2-avoidance costs, he adds: "The tightening of the target used here leads to an increase in CO2-avoidance costs. However, these depend to a large extent on the development of final energy demand."
Link to the study "Pathways to a climate-neutral energy system - The energy transition in the context of societal behaviour", February 2020, update December 2020:
The new website was implemented by the German Institute of Urban Affairs (Difu) as part of the project "Resource Policy at Municipal and Regional Level" (kommRess) on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency. Resource protection is becoming increasingly important in environmental policy. Against this background, the Federal Environment Ministry wants to provide greater support to municipalities in matters of resource efficiency. The website provides an overview of the many possibilities for municipal action and shows good examples of how resources can be conserved.
On 26 April 2017, the Agency for Renewable Energies in Berlin honoured the Saxon-Anhalt town of Burg for its commitment as Energy Municipality of the Month. A tenant power project in the town ensures that 230 tenants can obtain solar power to cover part of their electricity requirements directly from the roof of their apartments. "Tenant power projects are ideal for driving the energy transition locally and involving many citizens at the same time - either by participating financially in the systems or by purchasing green electricity," explains Nils Boenigk, Deputy Managing Director of the Renewable Energy Agency.
As part of the city's first tenant electricity project, the local public utility operates photovoltaic systems with a total output of 283 kilowatts peak on the roofs of ten apartment buildings belonging to a housing cooperative.
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