Good forecasts for renewables: cheaper than fossil energy
Published
Electricity from the sun and wind is too expensive? Wrong: according to new studies, green electricity is cheaper than fossil energy worldwide and in Germany.
Since 2009, prices for wind power have fallen by a third, for solar power by 80 per cent and in the next decade, solar power is set to become a further 60 per cent cheaper. 170 countries now have targets for renewables, and large financial investors are looking for these secure plants. Electricity storage systems are also expected to be 65 per cent cheaper by 2020 and their capacity is set to multiply from 1 to 250 gigawatts. And the rival authority IEA, the International Energy Agency of the OECD, which for years tried to talk down renewables, now sees similarly rapid growth and falling prices.
Average building land prices for individual development by district type 2007 to 2016 Fig.: BBSR Bonn
Between 2011 and 2016, the average price of building land for owner-occupied homes across Germany rose by 27 per cent from 129 euros per square metre to 164 euros. In the major cities, the price per square metre of building land rose by 33 per cent - from just over EUR 250 in 2011 to just under EUR 350 in 2016. This not only makes residential property significantly more expensive, but also puts the brakes on affordable rental housing construction. This is the result of an analysis by the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (BBSR).
The analysis is based on purchase price data from the official expert committees for property values for the last five years. In the urban and rural districts, the price level and increase lagged behind the major cities. However, even there the increase was well above the general rate of inflation. In the urban districts - often districts surrounding large cities - purchase prices for undeveloped land rose from 132 euros per square metre in 2011 to 156 euros per square metre in 2016 (+19 per cent), while in the rural districts, the price per square metre of building land rose from 64 euros to 78 euros in 2016 (+20 per cent).
The average purchase price for a plot of land for owner-occupied development also rose significantly - by 27 per cent to EUR 112,000 in 2016. In the major cities, the average purchase price for a plot of land for owner-occupied development was just under EUR 200,000 (+ 25 per cent). Average purchase prices have risen particularly sharply in expensive cities. "Rising land prices determine the purchase or construction costs to a considerable extent, especially in the growth regions. This makes residential property more expensive," says BBSR expert Matthias Waltersbacher. "In tight markets, high building land prices are also driving rents for new builds up to EUR 14 to 16 per square metre. This means that privately financed residential construction at affordable rents is no longer possible."
While the transaction figures for plots of land for owner-occupier development remained fairly stable in the urban districts between 2011 and 2016, they fell by 30 per cent in the major cities. Transactions fell particularly sharply in expensive cities such as Cologne, Frankfurt am Main and Stuttgart. Rural districts recorded an increase of just under 15 per cent in the same period. "Property prices have recently risen so sharply that the pressure to realise them often no longer allows for the development of single-family homes," says Waltersbacher. "More and more buyers are looking for alternatives in the surrounding area."
The analysis is based on an examination of the independent cities and rural districts for which transaction data for properties is available via the purchase price collections of the expert committees for property values in a complete time series since 2011. This representative longitudinal section covers around a third of all cities and districts in Germany. A comprehensive analysis of the land and property market for the years 2015 and 2016 will be presented by the Working Group of the Higher Expert Committees, Central Offices and Expert Committees in the Federal Republic of Germany (AK OGA) in December 2017 with the German Property Market Report.
The HYPV research project has developed a guideline that discusses low-CO2 electricity and heating networks. It is intended to make planning easier for energy suppliers.
At the end of the UN conference Habitat III in Quito (Ecuador), the environmental and development organization Germanwatch draws a mixed balance. "Around 50,000 people took part in the conference. This alone shows that cities are considered to be of great importance on the way to a sustainable world. It is very good that the adopted New Urban Agenda recognises cities as important players in achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris climate targets," says Lisa Junghans, expert on climate change, adaptation and urban transformation at Germanwatch. However, she qualifies: "The New Urban Agenda is not concrete enough in parts. Citizens will not feel directly addressed and there is a complete lack of measurable goals and criteria for monitoring the success of the agenda. It remains to be seen to what extent the agenda really supports cities in their development towards greater sustainability and a higher quality of life. Civil society in particular will have a key role to play in the coming years to ensure that the principles adopted here for future urban development have an impact."
Habitat III was the third World Conference on Human Settlements and Sustainable Urban Development after 1976 and 1996 and is intended to define guidelines for future urban development. Despite the highly participatory process in the preparation of the New Urban Agenda, the negotiations in the final phase took place, as expected, exclusively within the circle of government negotiators. Junghans: "Although this process is a classic UN process driven by states, it is problematic that city representatives are excluded from the final decisions on their own development."
Germanwatch is particularly positive about the fact that the final document grants cities more self-determination and ownership in the implementation of the New Urban Agenda and that "no one is to be left behind" - a reference to the particularly vulnerable population groups that must be included in the planning and implementation of future urban development policy.
The hope that a larger number of cities would lead the way with voluntary commitments, for example towards climate neutrality, has unfortunately not materialised. "Although there have been some very good announcements from civil society as well as from Germany and the EU regarding the creation of housing and climate-friendly mobility, concrete announcements from local governments themselves have been very limited," says Junghans.
Source: Germanwatch press release, 20 October 2016
We use cookies to optimize our website and services.
Functional
Always active
Technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a particular service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that have not been requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access, which is solely for statistical purposes.Technical storage or access used solely for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary consent from your Internet service provider, or additional records from third parties, information stored or accessed for this purpose cannot generally be used alone to identify you.
Marketing
Technical storage or access is necessary to create user profiles, to send advertising or to track the user on a website or across multiple websites for similar marketing purposes.
