Agora Energiewende's 2019 Year in Review: Greenhouse gas emissions and coal-fired power generation at record lows in 2019

The share of renewable energies in electricity consumption rises to almost 43 percent. The climate protection successes in the electricity sector are diminished by rising greenhouse gas emissions in buildings and transport. In parallel, public interest in climate protection is rising: since May 2019, it has consistently been the most pressing political issue in the eyes of the population. This is shown by Agora Energiewende's 2019 annual evaluation.

Berlin, January 7, 2020. Greenhouse emissions in Germany fell by more than 50 million tonnes in 2019, some 35 per cent below the 1990 level, bringing Germany's target of reducing emissions by 40 per cent by 2020 surprisingly within reach. The electricity sector is solely responsible for the decline: lignite and hard coal produced significantly less electricity, while renewable energies covered just under 42.6 percent of electricity demand, almost five percentage points more than in the previous year. This is shown in the annual evaluation "The energy transition in the electricity sector - state of affairs 2019", which Agora Energiewende has now presented. For the first time, wind, hydropower, solar power and biogas plants generated more electricity than coal and nuclear power plants combined.

The main cause of the decline in emissions in the electricity system is the increased prices for CO₂-certificates in EU emissions trading. In combination with the increase in electricity production from renewables and a decrease in electricity consumption, these led to fossil-fuel power plants significantly reducing their electricity production at many hours in 2019 because it was no longer competitive. As a result, electricity generation by hard coal-fired power plants plummeted by 31 percent, and that of lignite-fired power plants by 22 percent. This also benefited gas-fired power plants, which produced less CO₂-certificates for their electricity generation; they increased their electricity sales by 11 percent.

Unlike in the electricity system, CO2 emissions from buildings and the transport system actually increased: more natural gas, heating oil, petrol and diesel were consumed there than in the previous year. This partially offset the emission reductions in the electricity system. In the transport system, the rising share of heavy vehicles with large combustion engines, such as SUVs, in particular led to an increase in emissions.

The growth in renewable energies is mainly due to the addition of photovoltaic systems and a good wind year. "Nevertheless, the energy transition is starting the 2020s with a heavy mortgage," says Dr. Patrick Graichen, Director of Agora Energiewende. "This is because the expansion of wind energy has collapsed by more than 80 percent in the last two years and has thus almost come to a standstill. Moreover, because the tenders for new wind turbines were not fully utilized in 2019, we will not see impressive expansion figures for wind energy in the next few years either. It is up to the German government to quickly change the framework conditions now so that wind power can move forward again. It is the workhorse of the energy transition, and without wind power we will achieve neither the coal phase-out nor the climate protection targets."

However, the good figures for the energy turnaround in the electricity sector are clearly clouded by the lack of further ambition in energy and climate policy, particularly in the heating and transport sectors. "There is a risk that - after the decrease in emissions in the past two years - in the period 2020 to 2022 - an increase will follow again," warns Graichen. "We need to add more renewables to compensate for the nuclear phase-out by 2022 and also generate enough electricity for electric cars and heat pumps." This is also in line with the expectations of the population: for example, the representative long-term survey "Politbarometer" by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen shows that voters have consistently seen the issue of "climate/energy transition" as the most important problem since May 2019 - ahead of the issues of migration/integration (second place) and pensions (third place).

The annual evaluation also shows that the subsidy costs for renewable energies will soon fall. This is because old and expensive plants are increasingly no longer eligible for subsidies under the Renewable Energy Sources Act after 20 years, but can continue to offer electricity at what are now favourable prices. New wind and solar plants, on the other hand, now produce electricity more cheaply than all other types of power plant and, as renewable energy shares rise, are increasingly leading to falling prices on the electricity exchange. As a result, Germany was also the country in Europe with the lowest wholesale electricity prices in 2019, along with Luxembourg. It was also interesting to note that the upward and downward price swings on the exchange (including negative electricity prices) were moderate this year, with no shortages recorded on the electricity market "This is a sign that security of supply in Germany was consistently high last year," says Graichen.

A significant drop in electricity consumption also contributed to the high share of renewable energies. At 569 terawatt hours, electricity consumption in 2019 was the lowest in the past 20 years and lower than in 2009, the year of the economic crisis. This is due both to lower economic growth and overall lower electricity consumption by the energy-intensive basic materials industry, as well as to lower own electricity consumption by conventional power plants, which were replaced by renewable energy plants.

For 2020, Agora Energiewende forecasts that electricity generation from nuclear energy will continue to decline, as the Philippsburg 2 nuclear power plant was decommissioned at the end of December 2019. The situation for onshore wind energy, meanwhile, will hardly improve, with additions likely to be in the region of one gigawatt, as in 2019, while solar energy is expected to add four gigawatts, a similar level to 2019. Offshore wind energy is expected to increase further in 2020 due to the commissioning of new wind farms in the second half of 2019 and first half of 2020. The development of lignite, hard coal and natural gas and thus CO2 emissions in 2020 is open and depends on the development of coal, gas and CO2 prices as well as wind conditions - no reliable statements can be made on this at the present time. However, it is very likely that the prospect of possible compensation as part of the coal phase-out will mean that no coal-fired power plant will be shut down in 2020.

The annual review is available for download free of charge. It comprises 70 pages as well as numerous tables and graphics: 
www.agora-energiewende.de/...die-energiewende-im-stromsektor-stand-der-dinge-2019