"Islandization of living environments": Interview

Growth of renewable energies varies greatly from country to country / Greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union rose slightly last year / Agora Energiewende and Sandbag present report on EU energy transition

Brussels, 30 January 2018. In 2017, for the first time, more electricity was produced from wind, solar and biomass in the European Union than from hard coal and lignite combined. Electricity generation from these renewables grew by 12 percent compared to the previous year. Since 2010, the share of electricity from wind, solar and biomass - the "new" renewables introduced since 2000 - has more than doubled in the EU. However, as hydropower production declined sharply in 2017, the share of all renewables in electricity generation grew only slightly from the previous year, rising from 29.8 to 30.0 percent. This is shown in a joint analysis by two think tanks - Agora Energiewende from Germany and Sandbag from the UK. The authors of the study compiled and evaluated public data from numerous sources.

However, the share of renewable energies is developing very differently from country to country. The United Kingdom and Germany, for example, have contributed more than half of the expansion of renewable energies in the past three years - wind energy in particular plays a major role here. In Germany, 30 percent of electricity was generated from wind, solar and biomass last year, compared with 28 percent in the UK. The strongest percentage growth was recorded in Denmark: In 2017, 74 percent of the electricity generated there came from wind, solar and biomass, an increase of seven percentage points within one year. The strong growth in these countries contrasts with very low growth in many other EU countries: Slovenia, Bulgaria, France, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary have all seen very low growth since 2010. Other countries still recorded significant growth at the beginning of the decade, but only stagnation in the past three years. These include Spain, Italy, Portugal, Belgium and Greece. The exceptions are Croatia and Romania, where the share of electricity from wind, solar and biomass has increased from low single digits to 18 (Croatia) and 16 percent (Romania) since 2011. Six countries produced less than ten percent of their electricity from wind, solar and biomass in 2017: Slovenia (4%), Bulgaria (7%), France (8%), Slovakia (8%), Czech Republic (8%) and Hungary (10%).

Fossil energy also showed an uneven development. Electricity generation from hard coal declined by 7 percent due to higher wind power production. This development will continue in the Netherlands, Italy and Portugal due to political decisions. However, electricity generation from lignite increased slightly across the EU in 2017, and there is no sign yet of a shift away from lignite-fired generation.

Despite the increase in wind and solar energy, CO₂-emissions from the European power sector did not fall in 2017, remaining at 1,019 million tonnes. A combination of three factors led to this: First, electricity generation from hydropower fell to a Europe-wide low, mainly due to low precipitation and snowfall, which largely eroded gains in other renewables. Second, nuclear power plants in France and Germany supplied less electricity than in previous years. And third, electricity consumption in the European Union rose for the third year in a row, by 0.7 percent in 2017. Since CO₂-emissions outside the power sector increased, emissions within the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) are expected to rise again for the first time since 2010, the authors of the study forecast. They assume that in 2017, within the ETS, 1,756 million tonnes of CO₂ were emitted, six million metric tons more than in the previous year. Emissions from the use of oil and gas outside the ETS also grew. Sandbag and Agora Energiewende therefore assume an increase in total greenhouse gas emissions in the EU of around 1 percent.

"In recent years, the development of renewable energies in Europe has been strongly influenced by the success story of wind energy in the UK and Germany. However, only if all countries in Europe commit themselves equally will it be possible to achieve a 35 percent share of renewable energies in energy consumption by 2030. Photovoltaics can make a much greater contribution to this than has been the case to date. Measured against its potential and its now very low costs, it plays far too small a role," says Matthias Buck, Head of European Energy Policy at Agora Energiewende.

"With electricity consumption rising for the third year in a row, countries need to step up their energy efficiency efforts," adds Sandbag analyst Dave Jones. "To make a difference on emissions, European Union countries can't avoid closing coal-fired power plants. According to our calculations, 258 coal-fired power plants in the EU accounted for 38 percent of all emissions in the ETS last year. This is equivalent to 15 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions." In 2017, the Netherlands, Italy and Portugal announced plans to phase out coal-fired power generation in the coming years. "This is great. But we need a fast and complete coal phase-out in Europe. It would be absurd to still be charging electric cars with electricity from coal in the 2030s," Jones says.

To reach the EU's 2030 renewables target, the EU will have to make much greater efforts in the coming years than in the past. "Especially in Southern and Central Europe, but also in Spain and Greece, renewable energies can play a much greater role. Because the climatic conditions there are very favourable for renewables," says Buck. Agora Energiewende has therefore recently proposed a guarantee programme to significantly reduce the financing costs for renewable energy projects in these countries.

The analysis "The European Power Sector in 2017" was presented today in Brussels. It is available in English on the website www.agora-energiewende.de available for download free of charge. A comprehensive data set with all figures used in the publication is available as an Excel file.

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