Wuppertal Institute study presents key points for 1.5 degree target

How Germany can become CO2-neutral by 2035

Glaciers are melting, sea levels are rising, heat waves and heavy rainfall are increasing: The consequences of climate change are visible and tangible worldwide, and the window of opportunity to act is shrinking. In order to significantly limit the global effects of climate change, the emission of greenhouse gases on earth must be drastically reduced. The agreement reached by the international community in Paris in 2015 sets the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, but preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Now, the Wuppertal Institute presented a study with possible cornerstones that can help to achieve the 1.5 degree target by 2035. The study shows that a climate-neutral energy system by 2035 is very ambitious, but fundamentally feasible - –provided that all possible strategies from today's point of view are bundled.What is needed above all is to bring forward and intensify the measures described in many studies as necessary to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050.

In order to be able to make an adequate contribution to achieving the 1.5 degree limit, Germany will have to switch to a climate-neutral energy system by about 2035. In the study "CO2-neutral by 2035: Key elements of a German contribution to meeting the 1.5°C limit", researchers at the Wuppertal Institute have investigated which transformation steps and speeds are necessary to achieve this goal. The study, which was prepared by the research team with financial support from GLS Bank for Fridays for Future Germany, was presented today in Berlin during a press conference. The result of the study: A climate-neutral energy system by 2035 is very ambitious, but fundamentally feasible, provided that all possible strategies from today's perspective are bundled.

The German government's Climate Protection Act, which was passed last year, envisages Germany becoming greenhouse gas neutral by 2050. However, this is not compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The German Advisory Council on the Environment (SRU) assumes that CO2 neutrality must be achieved in Germany by around 2035 if an appropriate contribution is to be made to the global 1.5 degree target. Greenhouse gas emissions above and beyond CO2 must also fall very quickly thereafter. The SRU bases this on the assumption that per capita emissions will be distributed equally worldwide and that Germany will not be allowed to claim a disproportionate share. But how can this goal be achieved in time? The study attempts to provide impetus for discussion.

Manfred Fischedick, Scientific Director of the Wuppertal Institute, warns: "In order to have a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, German emissions would have to decrease dramatically, especially in the next five years - and thus above all in the next legislative period".

"A fair contribution to compliance with the 1.5-degree limit can now only be made if the upcoming German government tackles the transformation of the energy system as a core issue and consistently aligns its policies with the goal of a climate-neutral energy system by 2035. Without rapid CO2 emission reductions and prioritisation of climate protection in all policy areas, this is unlikely to be achieved," emphasises Dr Sascha Samadi, co-author of the study and research fellow in the Future Energy and Industrial Systems Division at the Wuppertal Institute.

In order to keep to the 1.5 degree budget, CO2 reductions of at least minus 60 percent by 2025 and at least minus 85 percent by 2030 (in both cases compared to 1990) are required, assuming the same per capita emissions worldwide. This is because cumulative emissions are crucial to significantly reducing the risks and impacts of climate change. However, a uniform, linear reduction by 2035 is not sufficient for this (see graphic).

Focus on the energy, industry, transport and buildings sectors

In their study, the researchers of the Wuppertal Institute investigated, on the basis of existing energy scenarios and further considerations, how CO2 neutrality could already be implemented by 2035, especially in the sectors of energy management, industry, transport and buildings. In their view, this requires the following measures, among others:

In the Energy industry the German government's expansion targets for wind and solar energy would have to be at least 25 gigawatts per year - more than double the government's current targets.

• In particular, the expansion of onshore wind energy needs to be given a boost - in the researchers' view, at least 7 or preferably 10 gigawatts per year are required here.
• Hydrogen is essential for a CO2-neutral energy system - among other things for steel production. So far, the German government's hydrogen strategy envisages an electrolysis capacity of only 10 gigawatts by 2035 at the earliest. For a climate-neutral energy system by 2035, however, 70 to 90 gigawatts of installed capacity would probably have to be reached by then, unless climate-neutral energy sources can be imported on a very large scale as early as 2035.

In some energy-intensive Industry sectors about half of the industrial plants will reach the end of their intended service life in the next ten years.

• These plants must be replaced by climate-compatible new processes, and existing plants must also be converted to non-fossil technologies by 2035 if they are to remain in operation.
• In addition, a hydrogen pipeline network must be established within a few years, as hydrogen is the key to conversion for many industrial sectors.
• In order for the climate-neutral key technologies to achieve a price advantage over the conventional CO2-intensive technologies, the CO2 price must rise significantly in the short term.
• To protect against the relocation of CO2 emissions and to maintain the competitiveness of German industry, effective "carbon leakage protection" is necessary, i.e. measures that prevent CO2-intensive production processes from being relocated to countries with less stringent climate protection requirements. Key elements of this could be instruments such as carbon contracts for difference, which help to overcome price differences in a targeted manner, in conjunction with product or climate levies.

"Even though there may still be uncertainties about the best long-term solution, building the infrastructure for a climate-neutral industry must start today. Otherwise, there may not be enough time for the conversion. Therefore, decisions have to be made now and implementation has to start very quickly," emphasises Dr Georg Kobiela, also co-author of the study and researcher in the Future Energy and Industrial Systems Division at the Wuppertal Institute.

The Traffic in Germany must be significantly reduced in order to achieve the goal of CO2 neutrality by 2035. Car and truck traffic is largely responsible for the high energy demand. Compared to rail, a car with a combustion engine requires 4.8 times more energy per kilometre and person, and a truck even 5.6 times more per tonne and kilometre than freight rail. Steps affecting transport are in particular:

• Consistent measures for traffic avoidance and modal shift
• Accelerated introduction of alternative drive systems, especially electric cars
• Significantly higher CO2 prices on fossil fuels as a central incentive instrument
• Parallel to this: Abolition of climate-damaging subsidies such as tax exemption for aviation fuel, diesel privilege, company car privilege, subsidies for regional airports, preferential investment in road construction and instead accelerated expansion of public transport, cycling and walking infrastructure.

At Buildings a massive and unprecedented increase in the energy refurbishment rate to a level of around 4 per cent per year is necessary - currently the rate is only around 1 per cent.

• A comprehensive mix of measures is needed to increase the rate of energy-efficient refurbishment, ranging from mandatory refurbishment when selling or inheriting real estate to effective CO2 pricing, a training and qualification offensive in the trades and the accelerated introduction of innovative processes such as industrial prefabrication of refurbishment elements.
• Today, the share of installed fossil-fuel heating systems is still almost 80 percent; with the goal of CO2 neutrality, a trend reversal would have to take place in the short term. In the next legislative period at the latest, a decision would have to be made that no more new fossil-fuel heating systems may be installed. Instead, the focus for newly installed heating systems should be on heat pumps in the future.

The scenarios outlined for achieving the targets by 2035 require the parallel implementation of a wide range of measures in all sectors. They each pose major challenges in their own right and require unprecedented political efforts. Businesses must also be ready and able to help shape the transformation process - without losing global competitiveness. "Above all, however, the broad consent of society is needed to keep within the 1.5-degree limit. To achieve this, the transformation path must be designed fairly and social aspects must be taken into account," emphasizes Prof. Manfred Fischedick.

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